Wednesday, May 20, 2026 · Afternoon
NVDA reports Q1 FY27 at 4pm ET with consensus at $78.8B rev and $1.77–$1.78 EPS.
- Q1 Rev consensus: $78.8B — company guided $78.0B ±2%
- Q1 EPS consensus: $1.77–$1.78 adjusted (+120% YoY)
- Q1 Data Center rev consensus: ~$73B
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Auto-generated from the 2026-05-20 afternoon market verdict.
The read
NVDA reports Q1 FY27 at 4pm ET with consensus at $78.8B rev and $1.77–$1.78 EPS. Options imply ±12.9% (~$29) move on a $224.86 stock. This is a setup brief, not a directional call — the right posture is wait-and-confirm before sizing. Compare this brief to the 7pm night briefing for the post-earnings reaction.
Situations worth watching
NVDA options — 1–2 days
Straddles near fair value at ±12.9% implied ($29 on $224.86). Historical average earnings move is 8–12% — straddle breakeven is at the high end of that range. IV crush of 40–55% is the post-print norm. Step aside on straddles unless you have directional conviction; directional bulls buy calls only.
Levels in play: May 23 or June 6 $225 calls for bull thesis; step aside otherwise
What would break it: IVR > 60 without directional edge; do not buy straddles
SMH — 1–3 days
SOXX up 64% YTD heading into the most binary semi catalyst of the year. SMH puts or short notional hedges existing longs vs. event risk at a low carry cost.
Levels in play: SMH $535 June puts; or short 1/4 notional SMH into print
What would break it: NVDA beat; SOXX gaps above $510 on open Thursday — cover immediately
NVDA / AMD pair — 1–2 weeks
A NVDA beat confirms AI capex concentration at NVDA over AMD. Post-print only: long NVDA / short AMD captures spread compression. AMD rallies less and gives back faster after NVDA beats historically.
Levels in play: Post-print ONLY if beat confirmed
What would break it: AMD custom silicon revenue beat suggesting structural NVDA share capture