Fed & Macro

Interest rates & monetary policy

FEDWATCH ▸

Target Range

3.50–3.75%

Eff 3.88%

Last Move

Cut 25bp

2025-12-10

Next FOMC

Jul 28-29

2026-07-28

2Y Yield

4.78%

90bps over funds — pricing hikes

10Y Yield

5.24%

as of 2026-10-02

2s10s

+45bps

Steep

10Y Real

2.88%

TIPS yield, after inflation

Balance Sheet

$6.74T

flat

This Cycle

−75bp

3 cuts since Sep 2025

Inflation & purchasing power

CPI YoY

3.4%

Aug 2026 · MoM +0.4%

Core CPI YoY

2.4%

ex food & energy

PCE YoY

3.4%

broader basket than CPI

Core PCE YoY

3.0%

the Fed's gauge · 2% goal

Dollar Buys

29.9¢

of a 1982-84 dollar · -3.2% YoY

Real Wages

-0.3%

wage growth minus CPI

Economic growth & activity

GDP

+2.2%

Q2 2026 · QoQ annualized

ISM Mfg

53.3

above 50 = expansion

ISM Services

54.0

above 50 = expansion

Retail Sales

+5.4%

YoY · Aug 2026

Industrial Prod

+1.4%

YoY · Aug 2026

Unemployment & labor

Unemployment

4.2%

Sep 2026

Payrolls (NFP)

+29k

Sep 2026 · jobs added

Participation

61.8%

share of adults working or looking

Wage Growth

+3.0%

avg hourly earnings YoY

Source: FRED · Federal Reserve Bank of St. LouisUpdated on each official release

Rates, bonds & the dollar

Source: Yahoo FinanceQuotes delayed ~15 min

buy side terminal ... ok

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