Monday, July 13, 2026 · Morning

Methodology note: Monday morning pre-open briefing. Generated ~7:10 AM ET. US equity levels are pre-market futures-implied (ES -0.51%, NQ -1.24%). BTC from Crypto.com live feed (11:01 UTC). Oil/geopolitical data from CNBC/Bloomberg July 13 early. All figures should be treated as pre-open estimates; confirmed closes update the regime triggers.

Monday morning briefing.

Buy Verdict — STEP ASIDE

The dual authorization of Friday July 10 — NVDA full-size and SKHY 50% — runs into a materially changed risk environment. Over the weekend, US and Iranian forces exchanged fresh strikes, Iran's military claimed the Strait of Hormuz closed, and the ceasefire framework that produced June's oil price decline is now in active dispute. BTC tested Gate 2 within $489 on Sunday's low. Korea opened with SK Hynix -13% and a Kospi circuit-breaker.

The right adjustment is STEP ASIDE: do not add new longs, reduce SKHY allocation from 50% to 25% pending first-hour ADR price action, hold NVDA full-size with the hard $195 stop intact, and hold TBT/XLE macro hedges through tomorrow's triple-stack.

The one bull signal that overrides all the noise: TSMC Q2 2026 revenue surged 36% YoY to $39.6B (June alone +68% YoY). Foundry-level AI infrastructure demand is running at full speed and accelerating. This validates NVDA's $91B Q2 FY27 guide and the HBM4 memory thesis (SKHY, MU). Iran is a multiple headwind, not a demand headwind.

Supporting:

• US-Iran exchange fresh strikes; Iran claims Hormuz closed, CENTCOM disputes (CNBC July 13) — US sea drones deployed offensively for the first time
• Bloomberg: Iran/Hormuz dispute — fresh strikes, ceasefire in question; Brent +2.8-4% ~$78-79; WTI ~$73-74
• BTC $62,953 live (Crypto.com 11:01 UTC); 24h low $62,489 — Gate 2 at $62,000 tested within $489
• TSMC Q2 revenue +36% ($39.6B) — AI demand structural confirmation (Bloomberg July 13)
• SK Hynix Seoul -13%, Kospi circuit-breaker; SKHY ADR range $166-177 (CNBC daily open July 13)
• ES futures -0.51%, NQ -1.24% pre-market; Iran tensions drive US equity open lower (Yahoo Finance July 13)

Monday pre-market open

Overnight: What Happened

The dominant story is Hormuz. US and Iranian forces traded strikes over the weekend — most significantly, the US deployed sea drones in offensive operations for the first time while Iran struck US military facilities in Kuwait, Bahrain, Jordan, Oman, and Qatar. As of Monday morning, Iran's military is claiming the Strait of Hormuz is formally closed to commercial shipping; US Central Command disputes this account. The ceasefire agreement signed at Islamabad in June is effectively broken.

Oil markets are pricing the disruption premium: WTI +2.5-4.2% to ~$73-74, Brent ~$78-79. The critical macro consequence is not tomorrow's June CPI print — it is the August print. June CPI (tomorrow) is still the "last clean baseline" from the Hormuz-reopening window. But if WTI breaks $80 before July 17, July CPI (August BLS release) becomes a structural second shock, pushing September hike probability from ~60% toward 80%+ and re-pricing AI multiples through the rate channel.

Asia session: SK Hynix fell 13% in Seoul, triggering a brief Kospi circuit-breaker (Kospi -8%). The Korea session reflects Hormuz-driven risk-off plus AI multiple compression from oil prices. Taiwan told a different story: TSMC reported Q2 revenue +36% YoY ($39.6B, June +68% YoY) — a concrete signal that foundry-level AI infrastructure demand is accelerating regardless of geopolitical noise.

SKHY first regular trading day: The SKHY ADR in the US is trading in the $166-177 range (Investing.com July 13), outperforming the Korean parent significantly. MSCI World inclusion eligibility clock started today — the passive-inflow tailwind is live.

Futures and Chips: ES -0.51%, NQ -1.24% pre-market. Chipmakers lead the decline with NVDA ~$205 pre-market (-2%). The Babypips fundies cheat sheet for the week describes July 13-17 as "Hormuz closed, US CPI, Warsh testimony" — that is the correct framing for the macro regime this week.

Monday's Tape View

Base case (45%): SPX opens ~7,537 (ES -0.51%), stabilizes above the 7,460 dual-gate floor through the session. BTC holds above $62,000 on a closing basis. VIX stays below 17. The afternoon sees energy/defense sector rotation while tech remains under modest pressure. SKHY ADR finds a floor in the $162-168 range. Session ends muted/slightly red with focus shifting to Tuesday's triple-stack.

Bull case (30%): WTI fails to sustain the morning gains (sellers emerge above $75), Iran/US communication signals a de-escalation path, BTC bounces back toward $63,500+, and TSMC's +36% drives AI-semis recovery. In this scenario, NVDA recovers from ~$205 toward $210+, SKHY ADR stabilizes above $170, and SPX recovers toward 7,575. Tuesday's triple-stack then becomes the catalyst that resolves STEP ASIDE BUY.

Bear case (25%): WTI sustains above $74 with reports of tanker diversions. BTC closes below $62,000 (Gate 2 breach). Chip complex selloff deepens: NVDA below $200 is the key watch level (5pts above the $195 mandatory exit). Kospi-driven sentiment pressure pushes SKHY ADR toward $155-160. SPX tests 7,460 dual-gate floor. In this scenario: begin systematic position reduction regardless of CPI direction — the macro regime has shifted.

Critical levels to track today:

• 7,575.39 — SPX Friday close. Reclaim at Monday close = STEP ASIDE was a single-session pause.
• 7,460 — SPX dual-gate floor. Closing breach = regime shifted; begin defensive adjustment.
• $195 — NVDA hard stop (closing basis). Loss = mandatory full exit, no exceptions.
• $62,000 — BTC Gate 2. Closing breach = mandatory defensive protocol triggers.
• $80 WTI — September-hike trip wire. Break before July 17 = September hike probability 80%+.
• VIX 17 — Regime flip. Close above = bearish regime signal; reduce gross exposure.

Major Stocks — pre-market

• NVDA ~$205 (-2%) — Full-size authorized and entered per July 10 protocol. Iran-driven tape pressure; TSMC's +36% is the fundamental signal that matters. Hold with $195 stop. Do not add above $215 pre-CPI. Do not add in first 30 minutes.
• SKHY $166-177 — ADR dramatically outperforming Seoul parent (-13%). Enter 25% (not 50%) at open only if SKHY ADR holds above $162 through 10:00 AM ET. MSCI eligibility clock starts today.
• TSM — Q2 revenue +36% ($39.6B) — the dominant semi bull signal of the morning. Full Q2 earnings call this week.
• AMD ~$544 est. (-2%) — Chip complex pressure. No chase. Better entry $520-530 pullback.
• META ~$620 est. — Less Hormuz-exposed than semis. Q2 July 29. Constructive; no chase without CPI clarity.
• AVGO ~$400 est. — Cleanest AI-adjacent long; Apple chip deal intact. Stop $360. Hold.
• MSFT, AAPL — Defensive megacaps may see quality-flight rotation if chip selloff deepens. Monitor.
• JPM, BAC, GS, WFC, C — DO NOT BUY. Triple-stack tomorrow (CPI + Warsh + all five report pre-open). Iran adds a fourth wildcard.

AI / Semis Sector

TSMC's 36% Q2 revenue surge to $39.6B (June +68% YoY) is the single most important data point for the AI/semis thesis entering this week. When the world's largest foundry prints its strongest quarterly revenue growth in six quarters in the middle of a geopolitical crisis, the message is unambiguous: AI capex is not being disrupted by Hormuz. The implication for NVDA's August 26 Q2 FY27 earnings ($91B guide) is constructive — TSMC makes NVDA's chips and TSMC is reporting record demand. The implication for SKHY is equally constructive for the fundamental thesis: HBM4 memory demand from AI training clusters is structural. The multiple compression from Iran oil/rate risk is a different issue from demand.

On Monday morning, chip stocks are selling off due to the rate-hike channel (WTI inflation September hike probability multiple compression). This is a tape/macro selloff, not a fundamental selloff. The distinction matters for position sizing and stops.

Politics, Fed & Macro

Warsh's debut House Financial Services testimony on July 14 at 10 AM ET lands 90 minutes after June CPI and alongside five major bank earnings reports. The Fed revised its 2026 inflation forecast to 3.6% from 2.7%. September rate hike probability is ~60% pre-CPI. The Iran oil spike creates asymmetric pressure: if Warsh references the Hormuz disruption as a reason for caution on easing, September hike probability could spike regardless of June CPI.

The Iran situation is now at its most serious escalation level: Trump declared the ceasefire 'OVER' on July 10, and over the weekend Iran conducted coordinated strikes on US bases in five countries while US forces responded with a third round of strikes and deployed sea drones offensively. This is no longer a temporary escalation — it is an active military conflict.

The Babypips weekly calendar correctly identifies July 13-17 as: Hormuz Closed + US CPI + Warsh Testimony. That is the most concentrated macro risk week of the summer.

Crypto — Gate 2 Watch

BTC $62,953 (Crypto.com live 11:01 UTC, July 13): -1.44%, 24h range $62,489-$64,428.

The critical number is $62,000 — Gate 2 floor from the July 9 protocol. The 24h low of $62,489 is the closest approach to Gate 2 since the protocol was established. A close below $62,000 today or tomorrow triggers a mandatory defensive adjustment across all positions.

BTC trades inversely to September rate-hike probability at current correlations. The Iran oil spike August CPI shock September hike repricing is the direct transmission mechanism. If soft June CPI tomorrow reduces September hike probability meaningfully from ~60%, BTC target range is $65K-$68K. If CPI is at or above consensus (3.9%) and Warsh sounds cautious-to-hawkish, BTC is the leading indicator that Gate 2 may be tested on a closing basis.

No new BTC adds until Gate 2 shows two consecutive closing holds above $63,500.

Don't Buy Right Now

• SKHY above 25%: Seoul parent -13%, Kospi circuit-breaker triggered. Enter 25% only if SKHY ADR holds above $162 through 10:00 AM ET. Upgrade from 25% 50%: CPI ≤3.5% AND two consecutive SKHY closes above $175 post-CPI.
• BTC new buys: Gate 2 nearly triggered (24h low $62,489). No adds until two consecutive closes above $63,500.
• Bank stocks (JPM/BAC/GS/WFC/C): Triple-stack July 14. Iran adds a fourth wildcard. 4.4-6% implied moves. Wait for post-print opens.
• NVDA above $215: Full-size is in. No chasing. $195 stop is non-negotiable.

Trade Setups

1. XLE (Energy sector) (medium-high conviction · Hormuz tail hedge)

• Thesis: Iran conducting active military strikes on US bases with Hormuz closure claimed. WTI +2.5-4.2%. If WTI breaks $80: September hike probability 80%+ AND XLE becomes market rotation leadership simultaneously.
• Entry: XLE at Monday open; add 2-3% if WTI opens above $75.
• Stop: Confirmed Iran-US ceasefire + Hormuz traffic normalizing.
• Target: XLE $95-100 if WTI sustains $80+.
• Invalidation: Ceasefire confirmed with Hormuz shipping above 70% normal.

2. TBT (UltraShort 20+ Yr Treasury) (medium conviction · rate-tail hedge)

• Thesis: 30Y above 5.06%, Warsh testifying with 3.6% 2026 inflation forecast; Iran oil spike loads structural pressure into August CPI. TBT hedges against Warsh hawkishness or CPI core ≥0.3% MoM.
• Entry: Hold existing through July 14 CPI and Warsh.
• Stop: CPI ≤3.5% AND Warsh signals no further hikes close TBT immediately post-testimony.
• Target: TBT $38+ on 30Y 5.25-5.35%.

3. SKHY (25% initial) (medium conviction · reduced allocation)

• Thesis: TSMC +36% Q2 validates the AI memory demand thesis. SKHY ADR holding $166-177 vs Seoul -13% — the US market is pricing the HBM4 structural demand. MSCI World inclusion eligibility clock started today. Reduced from 50% to 25% given Iran risk environment.
• Entry: 25% at open ONLY if SKHY ADR holds above $162 through 10:00 AM ET.
• Stop: Close below $125.
• Upgrade: Two consecutive closes above $175 post-CPI July 14 AND CPI ≤3.5%.
• Invalidation: SKHY ADR closes below $149 (IPO price) Monday.