9/16/26-Morning
The Fed raises rates for the first time since 2023, with only the path after it unsettled
generated 8:21 AM ET
- Futures pricing puts today's quarter-point increase to 3.75%-4.00% at roughly 93%, with the decision at 2:00 p.m. ET and Chair Warsh's press conference at 2:30 — the first increase since July 2023, and a rate this fully priced means the Summary of Economic Projections, not the statement, is what can still move a position
- Market pricing implies roughly 41.2 basis points of total 2026 tightening against Bank of America's 75, with eleven banks including Barclays, Citigroup, Nomura, UBS and Wells Fargo at 50 — the median dot is the committee's own entry into a spread running from Goldman's zero-more to three hikes in total
- An 85% majority of economists, 86 of 101, told Reuters the Fed would raise to 3.75%-4.00% today and 37 of 70 expect at least one further increase by end-March — the majority view no longer calls for lower rates in 2027 at all, reversing a no-change consensus that held as recently as last week
- WTI for October fell 1.29% to $104.46 and Brent for November 1.02% to $107.64 as an unexpected increase in US crude inventories was weighed against the Saudi outage — the East-West pipeline has been shut since the September 10 drone attack with no restart timeline, so the supply loss behind this month's 22% gain is intact and has been offset rather than resolved
- The ten-year Treasury yield rose 4.7 basis points to 5.008% after reaching 5.041%, its highest since July 19, 2007, and its sixth advance in seven sessions — the long end has moved further than the front all week, which is a market repricing the inflation path rather than the policy rate the Fed actually sets today
Futures pricing puts today's quarter-point increase to 3.75%-4.00% at roughly 93%, with the decision at 2:00 p.m. ET and Chair Warsh's press conference at 2:30 — the first increase since July 2023, and a rate this fully priced means the Summary of Economic Projections, not the statement, is what can still move a position CMEGROUP →
Market pricing implies roughly 41.2 basis points of total 2026 tightening against Bank of America's 75, with eleven banks including Barclays, Citigroup, Nomura, UBS and Wells Fargo at 50 — the median dot is the committee's own entry into a spread running from Goldman's zero-more to three hikes in total YAHOO →
An 85% majority of economists, 86 of 101, told Reuters the Fed would raise to 3.75%-4.00% today and 37 of 70 expect at least one further increase by end-March — the majority view no longer calls for lower rates in 2027 at all, reversing a no-change consensus that held as recently as last week YAHOO →
+ 3 more sourced points ▾− show fewer ▴
WTI for October fell 1.29% to $104.46 and Brent for November 1.02% to $107.64 as an unexpected increase in US crude inventories was weighed against the Saudi outage — the East-West pipeline has been shut since the September 10 drone attack with no restart timeline, so the supply loss behind this month's 22% gain is intact and has been offset rather than resolved CNBC →
The ten-year Treasury yield rose 4.7 basis points to 5.008% after reaching 5.041%, its highest since July 19, 2007, and its sixth advance in seven sessions — the long end has moved further than the front all week, which is a market repricing the inflation path rather than the policy rate the Fed actually sets today STLOUISFED →
August retail sales print at 8:30 a.m., six hours ahead of the decision, after July sales fell 0.6% against expectations of a 0.1% rise, the largest drop in more than a year — it is the only growth reading between the inflation data that forced this hike and the hike itself CENSUS →
The full read · 6 min
Methodology note: Morning report, generated before the September 16 US open. Sources cited inline.
The Fed Raises Rates Today For The First Time Since 2023, And The Market Prices Less Tightening Than Almost Any Forecaster
The Federal Open Market Committee announces at 2:00 p.m. Eastern, with futures pricing a quarter-point increase to 3.75%–4.00% at roughly 93%. With the rate itself settled, the Summary of Economic Projections carries the meeting, and the disagreement it lands in is measurable rather than rhetorical. Markets price about 41 basis points of total 2026 tightening, today's move included. Eleven banks forecast 50, Bank of America, Deutsche Bank and RBC forecast 75, and Goldman Sachs expects none after today. Crude, the input that carried the ten-year to its first 5% close since 2007, is falling this morning for the first time in a week — so a hawkish median would arrive at a market that has just begun pricing relief.
- Futures pricing puts a quarter-point increase to 3.75%–4.00% at roughly 93% into the 2:00 p.m. decision, with Chair Warsh's press conference at 2:30 — the first increase since July 2023, and a rate this fully priced means the projections, not the statement, are what can still move a position
- Market pricing implies roughly 41.2 basis points of total 2026 tightening, against Bank of America's forecast of 75 basis points — eleven banks including Barclays, Citigroup, Nomura, UBS and Wells Fargo sit at 50, so the median dot is the committee's own entry into a spread that runs from Goldman's zero-more to three hikes in total
- An 85% majority of economists, 86 of 101, told Reuters the Fed would raise to 3.75%–4.00% today, and 37 of 70 expect at least one further increase by end-March — the majority view no longer calls for lower rates in 2027 at all, a reversal from a no-change consensus that held as recently as last week
- WTI for October fell 1.29% to $104.46 and Brent for November 1.02% to $107.64 as an unexpected increase in US crude inventories was weighed against the Saudi outage — the East-West pipeline has been shut since the September 10 drone attack with no restart timeline, so the supply loss is intact and what changed is that US barrels arrived against it
- The ten-year yield rose 4.7 basis points to 5.008% after reaching 5.041%, its highest since July 19, 2007, and its sixth advance in seven sessions — the long end moved further than the front all week, which is a market repricing the inflation path rather than the policy rate the Fed actually sets today
- August retail sales print at 8:30 a.m., six hours ahead of the decision, after July sales fell 0.6% against expectations of a 0.1% rise — the largest drop in more than a year — it is the only growth reading between the inflation data that forced this hike and the hike itself
September 16, 2026 Pre-Market
| Asset | Level | Change | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 futures | 7,666.25 | +0.2% | Sep 15 cash close 7,585.73 |
| Nasdaq-100 futures | — | +0.4% | Leading the premarket |
| Dow futures | 52,790.00 | +0.1% | |
| 10Y UST | 5.008% | +4.7 bp | High 5.041%; highest since July 19, 2007 |
| 30Y UST | 5.25% | Sep 15 | |
| WTI (Oct) | $104.46 | -1.29% | First decline in a week; +22% this month |
| Brent (Nov) | $107.64 | -1.02% | |
| Gold (spot) | $4,338 | +1.0% | After a six-week low near $4,263 Tuesday |
| DXY | 99.65 | +0.15% | Sep 15 close; firmer overnight |
| BTC | $75,961 | -1.1% | 6:01 a.m. ET |
| ETH | $2,398 | -3.0% | Overnight |
| VIX | 17.10 | -1.1% | Sep 15 close; Oct–Sep futures spread 2.2% |
| Nikkei 225 | 63,415.20 | -0.07% | Asia close |
| Kospi | 6,634.09 | +0.10% | Asia close |
| FOMC decision | 2:00 p.m. ET | ~93% | 25 bp to 3.75%–4.00%, CME FedWatch |
What changed since last report
- Crude fell on inventories, not on diplomacy. WTI is down 1.29% to $104.46 and Brent 1.02% to $107.64 on an unexpected build in US crude stocks. The Saudi East-West line is still shut with no restart date, so the supply loss that drove the month's 22% gain has not been resolved — it has been offset.
- Equities are taking the oil pullback rather than the yield. S&P futures are up 0.2% and the Nasdaq-100 0.4% with the ten-year still at 5.008%, which reverses the sequence that produced Tuesday's decline in all three indices.
- Gold recovered about 1% to $4,338 after touching a six-week low near $4,263 on Tuesday, when a firmer dollar and higher real yields pushed it down. A metal bidding into a hike priced at 93% is positioning for the projections, not the rate.
- Continuity: last night's read placed the meeting's information in the Summary of Economic Projections rather than the rate, and named a WTI settle under $100 as the sign the energy premium was deflating on its own — crude has turned but remains $4.46 above that level.
Movers
- Nvidia trades at $213.26 premarket, edging higher with AI-related semiconductors recovering into the decision after Monday's selling on calls from AI-company leaders for a slower pace of capability development. That argument has now failed to extend past a single session twice.
- Energy equities carried Tuesday's crude move and face its reversal today. Shell reached a 52-week high of $99.02 and the SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration ETF rose 1.8% to a 52-week high of $192.39 as WTI cleared $105. With the barrel down 1.3% premarket, the sector is the fastest read on whether the inventory build or the pipeline is the operative fact.
- Lennar reports at 4:45 p.m. ET, two hours after the decision, with consensus at $1.30 a share on revenue down 5% to $8.37 billion and full-year EPS consensus compressed to $5.52 from $8.06 in fiscal 2025. A homebuilder printing hours after a hike is the cleanest read on whether mortgage-rate expectations have already done the damage the rate is about to confirm.
What to watch
The median dot against 41 basis points. Market pricing implies roughly 41.2 basis points of 2026 tightening, today's 25 included — barely one more move. The Reuters panel has 53% expecting at least one further increase by end-March, and the hawkish banks are at 75. A median showing two more hikes puts the committee above nearly all of that distribution; a median showing none validates the market. It resolves at 2:00 p.m.
Whether inventories or the pipeline set the barrel. Crude's first down day in a week came from a US stock build, not from a restart or a meeting — no Hormuz talks have been rescheduled since Oman's postponement. A WTI settle back under $100 would say the premium is deflating on supply arithmetic alone; a return above $105 would say the build was a weekly artifact against a structural outage.
Bitcoin near $75,000. Bitcoin at $75,961 sits 1.3% above the level that has held since August, after the Senate blocked the Clarity Act 49–50 on Tuesday. Holding it through a delivered hike would say the legislative outcome and the rate were both discounted in advance; losing it on the decision would say the asset is still trading as a duration proxy rather than on its own regulatory news.