Iran makes its Hormuz offer public, and oil, bond yields and rate-hike bets ease before the open

Methodology note: Morning report, generated before the September 25 US open. Sources cited inline.

Iran Puts a Seven-Day Hormuz Plan on the Record, and Oil, Yields and Rate-Hike Odds All Ease Before the Open

Iran's foreign minister made the Hormuz offer public overnight: a seven-day plan to reopen the strait and restart nuclear talks, with conditions attached. Thursday afternoon, stocks moved on a Reuters report of the talks while bonds and oil barely reacted. This morning bonds and oil are moving in the same direction as stocks. Brent is about 1% lower, the ten-year is about 3 basis points lower and October hike odds are down to about 71% from 77.5%. S&P 500 futures are 0.3-0.4% higher and Nasdaq 100 futures 0.6-0.7% higher. The pullback is small next to the move it follows. The ten-year's dip covers less than a sixth of its two-day rise of more than 20 basis points, and the plan's clock only starts if Washington accepts terms it has not accepted.

• Araghchi said the Strait of Hormuz "will be open at the end of seven days" if conditions are met, with the clock starting when Washington accepts them — the conditions are at least $12 billion of frozen assets released, a waiver on Iranian oil sanctions and the end of the US naval blockade, which is more than Washington has offered in public.
• Oil fell Friday on the prospect of a phased deal to end the Gulf standoff — Brent is off about 1% after Thursday's 3.4% gain to $106.60, so the market has taken back less than a third of that rise.
• CME FedWatch puts the chance of an October hike at 71%, S&P 500 and Dow futures are up 0.31% and Nasdaq 100 futures up 0.61% — October odds had reached 77.5% after Williams on Thursday, so the rate path is easing with oil, not with anything a Fed official said.
• The thirty-year rose 7.96 basis points to 5.4816% on Thursday, its highest since 2004 — this is the level any pullback today is measured against, and it closed further above the 5.44% 2007 high than last night's report carried.
• The Nikkei 225 rose 1.3% to 66,364, its fifth straight gain, with banks up about 4% as the global bond selloff eased — Japan's ten-year had hit its highest since 1996 on Thursday, so the relief there is the same trade as in Treasuries.

September 25, 2026 Pre-Market

What changed since last report

Last night's report said the Hormuz headline had lifted stocks while bonds and oil were still pricing the inflation case, and that the two readings could not both hold for long. Overnight, some of the pressure came off bonds and oil. None of it went the other way. The mechanism runs through oil:

• The offer is now public, but its terms are harder than Thursday's report suggested. Reuters described a phased swap of Hormuz for the blockade. Araghchi added frozen assets and an oil-sanctions waiver, and he tied the seven days to US acceptance. That is why oil is down only about 1%.
• Lower oil takes some pressure off the rate path. Oil and two Fed voters were the two inputs behind the October repricing. With Brent easing, FedWatch odds fell about 6 points without any change in what officials said.
• The bond selloff is global, and so is the relief. Japanese banks rose about 4% and the Nikkei 1.3% as yields there eased too. That fits a shared inflation premium coming off a little, not a US auction problem being solved.
• Correction: Reuters puts Thursday's thirty-year close at 5.4816%, not the 5.46% carried last night. The break above 5.44% was wider than reported.

Movers

Akamai is up about 19-21% premarket on the seven-year, $11.6 billion Anthropic commitment, which includes a warrant for about 5% of the shares at $111.33. The warrant strike is the level to watch as the gain settles.

AMD, Intel, Marvell and Cerebras are each up about 2% premarket. This extends a week-long run tied to Meta's Muse agent and the case for more CPUs in AI data centers, which took AMD past $1 trillion in market value Thursday. On Goldman Sachs' math, 100 million Muse users would need 1.6-1.7 gigawatts of compute.

Synopsys is up about 3% after HSBC upgraded it to buy, calling it a "high-growth AI beneficiary".

Nike is down about 2% after Bank of America cut it to underperform, expecting sales to fall from fiscal Q2 through the rest of fiscal 2027. That sets a lower bar for its October 1 report.

What to watch

Whether bonds follow oil or stay near their highs. The ten-year has given back about 3 of more than 20 basis points. A thirty-year close back under 5.40% would mean the bond market has accepted the equity market's reading of the Iran news. A close at or above Thursday's 5.48%, even with Brent lower, would mean the long end is being driven by supply and global term premium more than by oil. Monday and Tuesday have no coupon auctions, so they give the cleaner read.

Durable goods and final sentiment today. August durable goods are expected to fall 0.3% after July's 1.1% gain, with the core measure seen up 0.6%. Final September sentiment revises a preliminary 47.8, the second-lowest on record. A strong core orders number would push against today's fall in hike odds. A downward revision to year-ahead inflation expectations would support it.

Whether Washington answers the plan. The trade truce with China was extended by only two months, so the Iran track is the one policy item that can still move oil before PCE on September 30. A US acceptance would start a seven-day clock, and Brent under $100 would follow if markets believed it. Silence past the September 29 end of the reported window would leave this morning's gains resting on an offer, not an agreement.