Oil jumps and the bond selloff resumes after Trump rejects Iran's Hormuz plan

Methodology note: Morning report, generated before the September 28 US open. Sources cited inline.

Oil Jumps 4% After Trump Rejects Iran's Hormuz Plan, and the Bond Selloff Resumes

Oil and bond yields are rising together again, and stocks are lower before the open. Trump's rejection of Iran's seven-day plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz put Brent up about 4% near $108.50, its highest since September 15. Last week the thirty-year rose on inflation expectations while oil fell. This morning both push the same way, and the thirty-year is trading near 5.53%. Three signs say the market is treating this as a rate problem rather than a flight to safety: the two-year leads the Treasury selloff, gold is down 3% on a day of escalation, and the dollar is at a two-month high. One signal points the other way. October hike odds are quoted near 70-72%, below Friday's 76%. A Brent settle back under $106.60 would undercut this read.

• Brent rose about 4% to $108.48 and WTI about 4% to $96.16 after Trump rejected Iran's conditions for reopening the strait — Brent is now above Thursday's $106.60 settle, the level at which the market would have removed the whole deal premium from Friday's drop.
• The ten-year traded at 5.219%, up more than 3 basis points, the thirty-year at 5.529% and the two-year up more than 5 basis points to 4.916% — the two-year rising fastest ties the selloff to the Fed path, and the ten-year is back at last week's 5.22% high.
• Spot gold fell about 3% to below $4,200, its lowest since August 5, as yields and hike bets rose — gold falling on an escalation day says higher oil is being priced through rates, not as a reason to buy havens.
• Dow futures fell 251 points, or 0.5%, S&P 500 futures 0.5% and Nasdaq-100 futures 0.8% — a larger drop than Sunday night's 0.2%, with the Nasdaq-100 taking the most because long-duration growth stocks are most exposed to yields.
• The dollar index rose 0.18% to 101.15, its strongest since July 30 — dollar, yields and gold all say the same thing, which makes the rate reading harder to dismiss than a single-asset move.

September 28, 2026 Pre-Market

What changed since last report

Sunday night's read said Brent was pricing the rejection as a delay, up 1.8% to about $106.31; overnight trade decided otherwise.

• The talks look further off than Sunday suggested. CNBC reports that Trump told aides he expects to resume bombing Iran after the November midterms, alongside his public line that talks continue this week. Iran has said it will not soften its terms, which include lifting the naval blockade and releasing frozen assets. With both sides holding, the market took out the rest of Friday's deal premium.
• Oil passed straight into rates. The two-year's 5-basis-point rise is larger than the ten-year's 3, the pattern of a market pricing more Fed tightening rather than more supply of long bonds. Sovereign bonds in Japan and Australia also fell, so this is not only a US auction story.
• Gold is trading as a rate asset. It fell more than $100 on a day of rising conflict risk, which only fits if real yields and the dollar matter more to it than geopolitics right now.

The level that would change the picture: a Brent settle back under $106.60 with the thirty-year under 5.44% would say the morning moves were a reaction to headlines, not a repricing.

Movers

Nvidia is up about 1.5% pre-market against a roughly 2% drop in the iShares Semiconductor ETF, after adding $150 billion to its buyback for a $235 billion total authorization and launching software to contain rogue AI agents. The gap with the rest of the sector is the thing to watch into Micron's results on Wednesday.

Meta is down about 3% after a gain of almost 13% last week on the Muse agent launch, per CNBC's pre-market movers, with no new company news behind the drop.

United Airlines and American Airlines are each down more than 2%, with Delta and Southwest off more than 1.5%, on the jet-fuel cost of $96 WTI.

Newmont is down more than 4% as gold falls 3% and the dollar rises.

Energy producers are higher: Occidental and ConocoPhillips about 2%, Exxon Mobil and Chevron about 1.5%, less than half of oil's 4% move.

What to watch

Whether the thirty-year closes above 5.5%. It is trading at 5.529% against Friday's 5.488% close, and a close above 5.44% would be the third in a row above the 2007 peak. A close above 5.5% with the ten-year above 5.22% would mean both of last week's highs gave way on the first test. A close under 5.44% would say the oil move is not reaching the long end. It resolves by today's close, and again with Wednesday's PCE.

Brent's settle against $106.60, and Monday's mediation. Qatari mediators were reported on Sunday to be meeting both sides as early as today. A Brent settle above $106.60 removes Friday's deal premium completely. News of a formal US counter-offer would put Friday's $104.32 back in range. The September 29 end of the reported seven-day window has lost most of its meaning since Washington did not accept the plan.

Chips, with Asia already lower. The Kospi fell 2.7% as it reopened after the Chuseok holiday, with Samsung Electronics down 5.43% and SK Hynix down 5.05% on higher Treasury yields and last week's Oracle data-center delay news. The US semiconductor ETF is down about 2% before the open. Micron's fiscal fourth quarter on September 30 and AMD's October 1 price increase are the first company-level tests of whether higher rates are hitting AI demand or only AI valuations.